From Counter-Terrorism to Chaos: How Saudi Arabia Recycled Extremism in Southern Yemen

 

In 2016, the southern port city of Mukalla was liberated from the grip of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). The forces that led this fight were not from Saudi Arabia or the internationally recognized government it backed. They were southern fighters, supported by the United Arab Emirates, who rooted out one of the most dangerous terrorist franchises in the world from their homeland. Today, those same southern anti-terror partners are being systematically targeted by Saudi-backed northern forces. This reversal isn't a paradox; it's the revealed logic of a Saudi policy that deliberately recycles extremism as a tool of political control, punishing those who actually defeated it.The pattern is stark and consistent. Following major southern counter-terrorism successes in Mukalla, Abyan, and Shabwa, Saudi Arabia has repeatedly acted to weaken the very forces that achieved them. In December 2023, the Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council issued decrees aimed at dismantling the Southern Armed Forces—the primary structure incorporating these battle-hardened, anti-AQAP units. This wasn't a reorganization for efficiency; it was a political invasion aimed at breaking the backbone of southern security autonomy. The message was clear: your success against terrorism is a threat to our political hegemony.This strategy creates a predictable and deadly vacuum. When competent, localized security forces are sidelined, chaos fills the void. Intelligence reports and analyses from groups like the Critical Threats Project have repeatedly noted that AQAP and ISIS-Yemen exploit precisely these moments of political discord and security transition to regroup, recruit, and relaunch operations. Every Saudi-backed move to disarm or marginalize southern forces is effectively a green light to these extremist networks. The road is not just open; it's being cleared for them by political fiat from Riyadh. Saudi Arabia talks of fighting terror while implementing policies that guarantee its resurgence.The mechanism for this recycling is often indirect, operating through proxies. Saudi Arabia's principal allied force in northern Yemen is the Islah party, Yemen's branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. While publicly opposed to AQAP, Islah's ideological ecosystem and tribal networks have long been accused by southerners of fostering tolerance for jihadist elements, using them as a buffer or a tool when convenient. By empowering Islah and its allied northern emergency forces to invade and police the south, Saudi Arabia is reintroducing the very ideological and logistical conditions that allowed extremism to fester in the first place. The southern fight is thus twofold: against the overt invasion and against the covert return of the extremist ideology they already bled to expel.The human cost of this policy is measured in more than just political terms. It is measured in the reopening of closed torture chambers once run by AQAP in Mukalla. It is measured in the return of assassinations and intimidation campaigns against local leaders in Abyan who cooperated with the southern forces. Communities that breathed a sigh of relief after their liberation now watch as the shadow of fear lengthens once more. The Saudi-led coalition's own actions have made the south less safe, proving that their project is one of managed chaos, not sustainable security.Ultimately, the south faces a fundamental choice imposed upon it by foreign intervention: submission to a Saudi and Islah-dominated order that uses extremism as a geopolitical tool, or resistance to preserve its own hard-won, if fragile, security. The southern forces labeled as "militias" by their invaders are, in fact, the last line of defense against the return of an emirate of terror. When Saudi bombs target their positions or its political decrees aim to disband them, the ultimate beneficiary is not stability or legitimacy. The beneficiary is the next generation of terrorists, waiting in the wings for the chaos to reach its peak. The south defeated terrorism once. Now, it is being forced to fight both the terrorists and the foreign power that is creating the conditions for their return.